The 8 big questions emerging from the fallout of a shock general election result

Tonight has been a shock for anyone who has been following the polls. At the time of writing (5.30am) there are eight questions that emerge from the fallout.

1) Who will replace Ed Miliband?

The Labour Party managed to avoid all-out civil war after its defeat in 2010. One of Ed Miliband’s greatest successes as leader has been to hold the organization together.

Will that continue? There are lots of different strands of ideas within Labour and lots of different people will have different analyses of why the party lost.

In Scotland the party was obliterated by a party advocating unilateral nuclear disarmament, free tuition, and proportional representation. In England it was kicked in the face by a Conservative party standing on a right-wing manifesto.

The experience of Mr Miliband himself could loom large in the upcoming leadership campaign: will members shy away from less stage-managed personalities?

2) Will Nick Clegg step down and who will replace him?

Nick Clegg said he’d make a statement about his position later on – suggesting he might be about to resign. He’s presided over the destruction of decades of party building for the Liberal Democrats and did a lot worse than he was expecting.

But most of his colleagues have lost their seats. Vince Cable, Ed Davey, Simon Hughes Danny Alexander are all big names and are no longer MPs. David Laws in Yeovil may yet lose at the time of writing. Tim Farron is one of the few conventional names left in the race, but could another contender emerge?

3) How will the Tories govern?

At the time of writing, 5.30am, it’s not clear whether the Tories will have sneaked a majority or not, or how many numbers they’ll have to make up. The Liberal Democrats do not seem in a position to legitimately support anyone, considering the scale of their destruction. The DUP may be able to make up numbers to bring the Tories just over the line or shore up a majority.

But even the 2010 Coalition’s comfortable majority hasn’t been able to pass a lot of things in its programme like House of Lords reform or a boundary review. Gay marriage passed with Labour support. Even the DUP are not Tories to the bone they would come under pressure to block things like benefit cuts – at least for their own voters.

Could the Tories suddenly become OK with MPs from another country of the UK deciding the fate of England and Wales legislation despite earlier protestations about the SNP?  

 

4) Will we see further devolution?

One thing there is definitely a majority in the Commons for is extra devolution to Scotland – the Conservatives proposed it before and the SNP will likely take it. Could the Tories move to lock Labour out of UK power forever by ending Scottish influence over England and Wales legislation?

5) Will there be another election?

If we end up with a Tory minority government or tiny majority and they can’t pass anything except Scottish devolution, will they declare another election? They have deeper pockets than Labour, for whom money can be a problem, and might be in a better position to fight it.

6) Will Jim Murphy be forced out?

The Scottish Labour leader has lost his seat near-total losses across his section of the party were largely responsible for Labour failing to win a majority. He's said he'll stay on, but will his colleagues let him?

One factor that has to be considered is that Labour now only has 1 MP in Scotland. In Labour's old leadership election electoral college MPs' votes counted for a lot (though not under new rules). With MPs' preferences diverging hugely from Labour members and union affiliates, any leadership contest could be very different.

7) Will we finally see electoral reform?

If results so far are anything to go by Ukip and the Greens will likely be fairly pleased with their performances, but neither will get anywhere near a proportionate number of seats to the votes cast for them. A significant proportion of the electorate voted for parties that will be no where to be seen.

The SNP support proportional representation – the Tories are dead-set against it, however. Some in Labour might yet become converts when they end up with one seats in Scotland on 20%+ of the vote.

The current system is surely untenable in terms of fairness, but it’s not clear how vested interests could be politically overcome to replace it.

8) How will the pollsters explain this mess?

Tonight has been a disaster for the polling industry. Practically every poll conducted in recent weeks was wrong it could reasonably be argued that the entire industry’s output over the last few years has been completely worthless.

The Liberal Democrats in particular believed that their private polling would see them through in a number of seats they have lost by significant margins.  Lord Ashcroft spent a lot of money on polls.

The extent to which polling has dominated political reporting in this parliament raises a lot of questions for both pollsters and journalists alike.